Pistons Trade Jaden Ivey for Kevin Huerter and Dario Saric: Nothing but a Gamble

First, let's break down what the deal is and what it isn't. The Detroit Pistons send out a former lottery pick, Jaden Ivey, for a "shooter" (Kevin Huerter), a stretch four (Dario Saric), and a protected first-round pick swap.

"Kevin Huerter 2020" by Alexander Jonesi is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

The last element has been the most consistently misunderstood online. The Pistons did not receive a first-round pick. If the Minnesota Timberwolves have the higher of the first-round picks, the Pistons will swap first-round picks with them. Right now, that pick would move the Pistons from 29 to roughly 20-22. However, the pick is protected for picks 1-19. Minnesota can fall into the range, delaying the pick swap a year or jumping up to swap only two or three spots. Regardless, this pick swap is a non-factor in this trade, and anyone arguing otherwise is grasping at straws.

Jaden Ivey

The Pistons must be convinced that Jaden Ivey will not return this offseason or that they will be unable to retain him. That makes trading him understandable. However, the gamble is what they received in return. More on that later. Ivey is 23 years old and recovering from an injury, another oft-cited fact when discussing his trade. Ivey had also fallen toward the bottom of the rotation since his return, in large part because of Daniss Jenkins' ascendency. These are the facts.

Some media and podcasters have suggested that Ivey was unhappy with his role or that he may have been causing problems. Until there is a reliable source aside from "I heard this through the grapevine," it is nothing more than conjecture and cannot be used to evaluate this trade. These perspectives offer no support for this trade anyway.

Kevin Huerter and his "Sharpshooting"

Nothing would be better than the Pistons improving from beyond the arc as a result of this trade. The gamble here is that while Huerter has shot 37 percent from the three-point line in his career, he has not reached that mark since 2023. This season, he is shooting 31 percent; last season, he shot 33 percent. These are not great numbers for a "sharpshooter." These are the facts about Huerter.

The conjecture is that the Pistons are a better team; therefore, Huerter will get more open shots and shoot better. Again, this is a gamble. Hoping that a player with a history of strong shooting will suddenly find his shot again because he's playing a better team with more meaningful games is wishful thinking. It would be great for the Pistons if that happens, but until it does, there is no factual basis for this argument. Only hope.

The three-point shooting argument is doubly hurt when comparing Huerter's numbers to Ivey's. Ivey shot 40 percent last season and 37 percent this season. These numbers are markedly better than Huerter's. Perhaps Huerter will shoot better, or maybe he won't, but what about playmaking and defense? Huerter is an off-ball scorer and while the "metrics" suggest he is a better defender, that remains to be determined. Defensive metrics don't take matchups into account. But this one may hold true. Only time will tell.

The Result?

The best argument for trading Ivey rests on the belief that the Pistons couldn't re-sign him this offseason. Any arguments about his potential remain to be determined. Ivey is only 23 and could become a significantly better player. It is likely that, as far as gambling goes, Ivey's ascendency is a better bet than Huerter's jump shot magically returning for a contender that receives every team's best shot each night.

As far as basketball goes, Ivey is the better player. Perhaps his injury will stop him from returning to form. Again. A gamble. The pick swap is essentially meaningless. So, if Huerter doesn't help the Pistons win a title (another gamble), this trade will go down as a poor one.

While it goes against some mainstream thinking, the Pistons may have been better off keeping Ivey and letting him walk at the end of the season. His value to a title-contending team is worth more for the remainder of this season than what the Pistons received in return.

Of course, gambling sometimes pays off. If Huerter manages to spread the floor for the Pistons, then maybe this works out. Then again, if Huerter doesn't perform up to the sudden expectations on social media, and Ivey becomes a solid starter in the NBA, this looks like the Chicago Bulls fleeced the Pistons. As they say, you've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. In this case, the Pistons were better off standing pat.

Grade: D

Stats provided by Basketball Reference, StatMuse, and NBA.com.

For more material like this, click here to see all previous sports-related posts. Additionally, consider subscribing to or following us on Facebook or Instagram to stay up-to-date with our latest posts. 

For More Detroit Sports Coverage, Check out: The Detroit Way: A Detroit Sports Podcast