Detroit Pistons Trade Deadline Dos and Don'ts

The NBA trade deadline quickly approaches (Thursday, February 5 at 3 p.m. ET), and the rumors (mostly unsubstantiated clickbait) continue to fly about what the Detroit Pistons will do to ready the team for the postseason. Some are pushing for an additional three-point shooting (the Pistons rank 21st), some are begging for an additional star (Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the market), and some are looking for an additional playmaker (with its subjective meaning).

"Tobias Harris (37823548241)" by Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

The Facts

Before jumping into what they should or shouldn't do, let's lay down the facts. The Pistons are in first place in the Eastern Conference (34-12), rank in the top five in defense, bench scoring, and points in the paint, and lead the league in both blocks and steals. The Pistons, however, are in the bottom ten in three-point percentage and in the bottom five in turnovers per game. These numbers lend some credence to the "add a shooter" and "add a ball handler" camps.

The Eyeball Test

The eyeball test would help both of those as well. At times, the Pistons struggle because opponents double-team Cunningham or play a zone defense. Having an additional shooter could help with either, and adding another guard could help deter the double teams. However, neither the numbers nor the eye test should lead anyone to believe that the team needs another star.

Pistons Trade Deadline Don't: Get Another Star

The media would like this one. The problem isn't that another star is necessarily a bad thing; it's the cost. Antetokounmpo, Zach LaVine, and Michael Porter Jr. carry massive contracts and would likely cost multiple first-round picks and a gutting of the Pistons depth. Detroit has depended on its depth throughout the season. Players frequently listed in the mock trades include Ron Holland, Tobias Harris, and Jaden Ivey.

Holland is a problematic trade piece because of his age and potential, but even more so because of his hustle. Holland, or as Greg Kelser calls him, Hustle Man, represents the Pistons identity. They are tough, gritty, and relentless. Trading him would be trading that identity.

Harris is the team's veteran leader (he and Duncan Robinson account for most of the team's postseason experience). He has also been turning it up of late (14.1 points per game in the eight games since his injury), providing a strong post option for the Pistons.

Ivey raises some interesting questions: Can he return to form in time for the playoffs, and will he develop into the perfect backcourt mate for Cade? Ivey has had some ups and downs since returning to the lineup. At times, he looks a little slow and out of place. At other times, he's knocking down threes and leading the break. He has averaged 8.2 ppg in 16.7 minutes per game. He is either on a serious minutes restriction or hasn't gained J.B. Bickerstaff's trust to play in bigger moments ahead of breakout two-way player Daniss Jenkins.

Pistons Trade Deadline Do: Add Affordable Shooting

The Pistons do need some shooting, but that need comes with some caveats. They don't need volume shooting, they can't overspend on it, and they shouldn't gut the roster to do it. Immediately, these eliminate some of the names on the market that the clickbait sites adore.

First, the need is there. The Pistons have only four players shooting above the league average (36 percent) from the three-point line. Of those four, only one is shooting more than four per game (Robinson). To that effect, only half of the top ten teams in three-point attempts per game have records over .500. Furthermore, the same is true for three-point percentage. So neither percentage nor attempts leads to winning. What the Pistons need more than three-point shooting is someone to make teams respect the three-point line, allowing them to continue dominating in the paint.

The most foolish thing the team could do is add someone like Malik Monk, a high-volume shooter with a bad contract on a bad team. The Pistons have some key players coming off their rookie deals (Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, and Ausar Thompson) over the next few seasons. Adding a one-dimensional player with a multi-year contract would strain the team's ability to retain these players. So, these kinds of players are bad in the short and long term.

Pistons Trade Deadline Don't: Gut the Roster

The Pistons should avoid giving up too much at the deadline. It's not solely about the potential of any one young player and future draft pick, but more so about how this "Go all in" approach rarely works. A brief history lesson: Paul George, Kevin Durant, and James Harden have been a part of several blockbuster trades that have not led the "Go All In" organization to a title.

However, Pascal Siakam and Brandon Ingram are examples of players who were dealt and made a difference. Siakam helped the Indiana Pacers go from a middle-tier team to a title contender (obviously, before Tyrese Haliburton's injury), and Ingram has given the Raptors a go-to scorer. The key here is that the players filled a clear need for these teams and didn't cost the whole team to acquire. The Pacers did give up three first-round picks to get Siakam at age 29, but the Raptors only gave up one first-round pick to add Ingram at age 28.

The Pistons have a lot of potential and were bad for so long because they kept, mistakenly, leveraging their future (draft picks) for not much in return (Blake Griffin). The Oklahoma City Thunder have set the model for roster construction. Draft well and stack young talent for a competent coach. Trajan Langon and the Pistons have thus far followed that model. The types of players they add, the identity part, that's uniquely Detroit.

Pistons Trade Deadline Do: Find a Secondary Ball Handler

The Pistons have primarily relied on Ausar Thompson as a secondary ball handler. He does well in some scenarios and not so well in others. Jenkins and Ivey have both had opportunities to do so; Jenkins has played well, and Ivey is finding his groove. However, the Pistons could use some help here for decision-making.

While the media focuses on the ever-increasing definition of "playmaker," the Pistons should focus on adding a strong "decision maker," a player who knows when to back it out and restart the offense. Someone who doesn't force a bad pass or a quick shot. They don't need someone to jack up quick threes or push the ball in bad situations. This need is definitely lower on the list, but the high turnover rate indicates it is a problem. However, the more likely solution here will need to be teamwide. Every player (especially Holland and Thompson) will need to improve in this area. The good news is that Bickerstaff has helped the team make significant strides in prior weaknesses (poor defense and even worse decision-making).

The Bottom Line at the Deadline

The Detroit Pistons could do nothing at the trade deadline and still make it a win. The outside shooting could come from Ivey and Marcus Sasser. Decision-making could improve across the board, as this young Pistons team (the majority of the core is 24 and younger). Ultimately, this team remains in first place and, even more exciting, has not reached its potential. Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Holland have not come near their ceilings. Ivey's injury has slowed him down this season, but he could still develop into a star.

Time and time again, the NBA has seen teams destined for long runs broken up by impatience. In a world becoming increasingly "what have you done for me lately?" the Pistons organization should practice patience or risk this decade of relevancy.

The risk in staying patient comes with fan and media ridicule, which is understandable in a city that has finally seen its sports teams emerge from the basements of their respective leagues. But these narratives of "short windows" and "going all in" are actually traps that send the naive organization back into the basement. They are illusions, shortcuts that trick franchises on the ascendency into returning to mediocrity so that the well-run organizations can get a jump start back into the playoff picture. The most notable example of an organization doing this is the reigning NBA champion, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They used the Clippers attempt to quickly become contenders to build a perennial contender themselves.

Stats provided by Basketball Reference, StatMuse, and NBA.com.

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