College Football Week 5 Overreactions and Underractions
- Chad Marriott
- Sep 28
- 5 min read
College Football Week 5 promised the best slate of games of the season so far, and it exceeded expectations. The weekend began with multiple Friday night thrillers, not least of which was Virginia's upset of 8th-ranked Florida State. If that wasn't enough, Saturday featured multiple overtime games and more single-score games.
The four ranked-on-ranked games took unexpected turns, all going against the betting odds. Two went against Off the Field and Screen's picks.
The new AP reflects much of the chaos from this weekend. The SEC has six teams in the top 12, the Big Ten has four (including the top two spots), and the ACC and Big 12 each have one. FSU, LSU, and Georgia had the largest drops, and Ole Miss and Alabama are the highest climbers. Notre Dame is rewarded despite its two big losses. Texas's weak schedule helps them remain in the top ten. Don't worry, much like LSU, their reckoning is coming.
College Football Week 5 Overreactions
Overreaction 1: Illinois
Illinois defeated USC, 34-32. Immediately, the Illinois recovery and hype as a top-end Big Ten team began. Illinois's loss to Indiana should still loom large. USC and Illinois feel like second-tier Big Ten teams. That's not to insult either program, but they haven't proven they are ready to compete with Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon. Indiana has jumped into that conversation. Michigan still has a chance to do so this season. Illinois's last chance to make a statement will come against Ohio State on October 11, a big day in the Big Ten.
Overreaction 2: James Franklin's Big Game Struggles
James Franklin will resume his role as the most pilloried coach in college football after Kalen DeBoer managed to lead Alabama to a victory in Georgia, snapping a 33-game home winning streak. Franklin's big game struggles will draw the most headlines, but it might be too soon to write off Penn State this season. Their matchups against Ohio State on November 1 and Indiana on November 8 will be telling. If the Nittany Lions can pull off both, Franklin can rewrite the narrative. The positive part of having a reputation for losing big games is that it means you play in big games.
Overreaction 3: Notre Dame
Notre Dame, once again, blew out an inferior program, defeating Arkansas 56-13. No amount of blowouts should assist them in getting back into the College Football Playoff conversation. Their brand recognition should only be able to do so much. USC's loss to Illinois could prevent them from having any more ranked opponents this season.
College Football Week 5 Underreactions
Underreaction 1: Oregon
Oregon jumped up in the Big Ten last season, seizing one of the conference's top spots. Penn State, however, has been consistently ranked ahead of them this season. Not only has Oregon taken that mantle from the Nittany Lions, but they should overtake Ohio State as the conference's favorite. With the information available, this win is more significant than OSU's win over Texas. It's still early, and a lot could change, but the nation continues to sleep on the Ducks. If Oregon can take care of business the rest of the way and win their October 11 matchup against Indiana, they should be on a collision course with OSU for the Big Ten title.
Underreaction 2: ACC Struggles
Florida State's loss to Virginia likely means the ACC is down to one team in the College Football Playoff, after a promising start. Miami and Georgia Tech remain undefeated. If they stay on this course, they could end up in the ACC title game. Miami and Florida State play on October 4. If FSU bounces back and defeats Miami, it will only get more complicated. Georgia Tech could win the title and lose their nonconference matchup against Georgia. Suddenly, the conference could have three one-loss teams going into the Conference Championship. If Miami goes undefeated and Georgia Tech loses to Georgia as well, do they deserve a spot in the playoffs? It now feels unlikely that the ACC will deserve a second spot ahead of a fourth Big Ten or fifth SEC team.
Underreaction 3: Big 12 Struggles
The Big 12 feels like another conference that will likely only send one team to the CFP. Iowa State is in the driver's seat, but Arizona State, BYU, and Texas Tech could throw everything into chaos. Iowa State has Arizona State and BYU on their schedule. So does Texas Tech. Again, time will tell, but this conference will likely take itself down. Their best chance is to have two undefeated teams match up in their Conference Championship. With the schedules, it seems unlikely that two teams will advance that far, meaning a two-loss Big 12 team would need to argue for a spot ahead of the fourth-place Big Ten and fifth-place SEC teams.
Best Games
Oregon defeats Penn State on the road 30-24
As mentioned above, Oregon going on the road and taking down Penn State gives them a stake as one of the two best teams in the conference.
Alabama ends Georgia's dominance at home, winning 24-21
Kalen DeBoer manages to stem the tide by helping the Tide roll in Athens.
Ole Miss upsetting LSU, 24-19
Lane Kiffin's big win will fly under the radar in a week of big wins from Alabama and Oregon, and Brian Kelly's loss will fly under the radar with losses from James Franklin and Lincoln Riley, but that doesn't mean it should. LSU's time in the top ten should come to an end.
Virginia's overtime upset of FSU, 46-38
The Friday Night Football has been hit or miss over the years, but this week provided plenty of thrillers, none more exciting or exemplary of college football than Virginia's upset and field storming.
Honorable Mentions
Last week, this section proved difficult to fill out, but with so many close games, a few more deserve mention. A few of these were arguably better than the ones above. Illinois and USC had the back-and-forth, while Tennessee and Georgia Tech's games featured overtime drama, and the rest were decided by a single score. It was too much good football for two days.
Tennessee 41 - MS State 34
Illinois 34 - USC 32
Arizona State 27 - TCU 24
Georgia Tech 30 - Wake Forest 29
Indiana 20 - Iowa 15
Texas A&M 16 - Auburn 10
BYU 24 - Colorado 21
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