The 2025 Detroit Tigers Playoff Chances, Scenarios, and Percentages

The 2025 Detroit Tigers playoff chances remain high. The Tigers have taken the state of Michigan on a roller coaster since August of 2024. The Gritty Tigs overcame a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, defeated the Houston Astros in the Wild Card round, and took the Cleveland Guardians to five games in the ALDS. In 2025, the Tigers started out 59-34. The Tigers had six players represent Detroit at the All-Star game, including four starters (Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Zach McKinstry, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, and Riley Greene). The Tigers had a 15.5-game lead in the Central Division in early July. Since that start mentioned above, the Tigers have gone 27-39, including a 1-12 skid in July and a 6-15 record in September.

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To add on to all of this, the Tigers' pitching struggled in the second half, compounded by some poor trade deadline additions (Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack). The Tigers' struggles aren't completely on the deadline, either. That is a convenient narrative to explain expectations blown out of proportion. It seems possible that this team had become accustomed to being the underdog and crumbled beneath the pressure of becoming the favorites.

Detroit Tigers Playoff Chances

The Tigers still have a 84.4% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs. The Tigers have a three game series with the Boston Red Sox to end the season. The Red Sox hold the second Wild Card spot right now. They remain one game ahead of the Tigers in the Wild Card standings, and the Tigers are one game ahead of the Houston Astros for the third spot. The Tigers own the tiebreaker agaisnt the Astros. The Astros need to win two more games than the Tigers do to surpass them. So, the Tigers can get in with a win and an Astros loss, two wins, or two Astros' losses. The Astros are heading to Los Angeles to play the Angels.

The Tigers could pass the Red Sox this weekend as well. The Tigers need only one win to claim the tie breaker. Therefore, the Tigers need two wins to overtake the Red Sox for the second Wild Card seed. The first priority is to get into the playoffs, but the seeding isn't irrelevant. The Tigers will likely play the Guardians or the Yankees. The Tigers have a 4-2 record against the Yankees, and a 5-8 record against the Guardians this season, a 6-7 record against them in 2024, and, of course, the ALDS series loss.

Detroit Tigers Division Chances

The Tigers have a 34.0% chance to win the division. Cleveland hosts the Texas Rangers this weekend and own the tiebreaker. The Tigers will need to win one more game than Cleveland to claim the pennant. So, Division Title=Cleveland Wins+1. If the Tigers manage to reclaim the lead, the Tigers could host the Guardians, Red Sox, or Astros in the Wild Card. If you're a fan of tight playoff races, this weekend is one to watch baseball.

Detroit Tigers Playoffs

Will the struggles all be forgotten if the Tigers make the playoffs? No. The fans and media will still be angry about how it happened. The only way for this frustration to pass is to win in the playoffs. The odd thing is that if the Tigers miss the playoffs it will be seen as a justification for fans displeasure. If the Tigers make the playoffs and win a series or two, it will be seen as a justification for the fans displeasure.

If the Tigers do anything short of win a World Series, everyone will blame the owner for being "cheap"(Despite the Tigers adding $62 million in new contracts for roughly 40% of their guaranteed payroll, not to mention the moral nonsense of such claims) or Scott Harris being bad at his job (despite pulling the Tigers out of a historically awful 9-year playoff drought in his second full season with the job).

It's an unfalsifiable thesis: "SPEND MORE! TRADE FOR BIG NAMES! DO SOMETHING! If you miss the playoffs, it's because the team was bad, and you did this! If you make the playoffs, it's because we're good, and you didn't do enough!" The problem with that logic is that no matter what happens, the organization messed up. Either they constructed a bad team that overperformed, and therefore, didn't do enough, or they constructed a good team that was a player or two from winning the World Series, and they didn't add those players. It can't be both. The only way for the organization to have succeeded is to win it all. That bar is unrealistically high. So, pick which one you believe and stick with it unless you're simply a fan of complaining.

(All stats provided by Sports Reference and StatMuse)

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