Detroit Tigers Playoff Preview: Wild Card Preview
- Chad Marriott
- Sep 29
- 4 min read
The Detroit Tigers had the best start to a season a Tigers team has had since 2006. The Tigers held a 15.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians as of July 8. The Tigers were also the first team to reach 60 wins. After the All-Star break, the Tigers had a stretch of 12 losses in 13 games. In September, they went 7-17, capping off a 28-37 post-All-Star break record. The causes of their struggles range from pitching to hitting to roster construction. Regardless, they managed to claim a Wild Card spot to go against the Cleveland Guardians.
Detroit Tigers Playoff Preview and Cleveland Guardians
Any Detroit Tigers playoff preview against the Cleveland Guardians has to discuss their struggles against them. This season, the Tigers posted a 5-8 record against the Guardians, including a 1-5 stretch in September. The Tigers also lost to the Guardians in the ALDS last postseason. Tarik Skubal has a 3-3 record against the Guardians with a 2.33 ERA. However, the Cy Young winner had a 6-inning loss to them in the 2024 postseason.
The Tigers had a 2-1 series lead before the Guardians overcame a 3-2 deficit in Game 4 at Comerica Park to win 5-4. The teams know each other well, and as previously noted, played six times in September. There are no secrets among these teams.
Detroit Tigers versus Cleveland Guardians: Starting Pitching
Skubal will start Game 1. He'll want a chance at redemption, and a Game 1 win could flip the narrative for the Tigers and their struggles against Cleveland. He'll have his work cut out for him. The Guardians projected Game 1 starter is Gavin Williams. His last two outings were both against the Tigers. He threw 11 innings between the two starts, giving up two runs with 21 strikeouts, seven hits, and four walks.
The Tigers will likely start Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty in Games 2 and 3. The order isn't decided yet, but Mize, despite a difficult August (5.81 ERA in five starts), played well in September, posting a 3.49 ERA in five starts (32 Ks and four BBs). Flaherty also finished strong, posting a 3.86 ERA in four starts in September (19 Ks and seven BBs). Flaherty has had more rest, but Mize's All-Star season may get him the Game 2 nod.
Either way, they'll likely need both to pitch well against Cleveland's probable starters for Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 3, Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi. Bibee's last two starts this season were also against the Tigers. He threw 12 innings and gave up one run in each game (13 Ks and three BBs). Cecconi last pitched against the Tigers in May and early July. He also threw 12 innings between the two outings with 13 Ks and four walks.
The Tigers and Guardians should be evenly matched with starting pitching. Skubal is the best pitcher on either team. Any one of the other five pitchers is capable of throwing a gem.
Detroit Tigers versus Cleveland Guardians: Bullpen
The Detroit Tigers bullpen has drawn a lot of attention this season, particularly after the deadline. However, two of the deadline additions, Kyle Finnegan (1.50 total and 7.36 since injury) and Rafael Montero (2.86), have played key roles for this team. Will Vest got the save for the playoff-clinching game against the Boston Red Sox, but has been uneven lately. Tyler Holton and Troy Melton will play high-leverage roles as well. The Tigers bullpen hasn't been decided yet, but Keider Montero, Brennan Hanifee, Brant Hurter, and Tommy Kahnle could all have spots as well.
The Guardians' bullpen has been its strength, with Cade Smith, Jakob Junis, Hunter Gaddis, and Kolby Allard playing key roles, each with sub-3.00 ERAs. More significantly, they've given the Tigers hitters fits. Ultimately, no team has had better pitching since August than the Cleveland Guardians.
Detroit Tigers versus Cleveland Guardians: Hitting
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians shouldn't have explosive, high-scoring games; instead, they should feature pitching duels and situational baseball. In other words, the games will come down to which team can get the big hit. Analytics hates this element of baseball because it is difficult to measure. The Tigers hit .230 and slugged .369 in September, scoring roughly four runs per game. The Guardians hit .242 and slugged .411 in September, scoring roughly 4.6 runs per game.
The Guardians clearly have better numbers, but which team has the better power hitters? The Tigers have Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter (who struggled in September), and the Guardians have Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo. The Guardians also have Steven Kwan, who has a penchant for making big plays against the Tigers. His career batting average of .257 against them doesn't paint the full picture. In last year's ALDS, he hit .524 with a 1.137 OPS against the Tigers. Of course, Carpenter hit .308 and .896 against Cleveland in that series.
Detroit Tigers versus Cleveland Guardians: Verdict
The Tigers have struggled down the stretch and against the Guardians. The Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball for the last two months. The media will say to throw it all out the window because it's October now, but until the Tigers show some signs of life, nothing will change. This will be a difficult series to win.
The advantage the Tigers have is Tarik Skubal. If he can win Game 1, everything changes. Negating Gavin Williams and giving the Tigers a fighting chance to pull out one of the final two games is the only pathway to the ALDS for the Detroit Tigers. If they lose Game 1, they cannot win the series. If they do, the Gritty Tigs will be pulling off their greatest comeback yet.
(All stats provided by Baseball Reference and StatMuse)
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